Model That Predicted Democrats Would Take The House in 2018 Just Forecasted Trump’s Re-Election Chances

He's going to have himself another freakout.


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Now, THIS is going to set off a Trumper tantrum for the ages.

The President notoriously hates polls (except when they look good for him, or are at least cherry-picked), but he finds it much, much harder to argue with forecasting models. I personally will probably just chalk that up mentally to Trump not being smart enough to parse the kind of work forecast models do, but your mileage may vary.

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The latest one, however, should probably make him rethink his strategy as he heads into the 2020 presidential race. Eventually, one of his staffers or aides or perhaps his campaign manager is going to have to pull him aside and break the news to him that it was almost sheer laziness that won him the presidency in 2016. Someone will have the unenviable task of telling Donald Trump that the number of people who like him is actually staggeringly small. If he doesn’t have that in his head — if he campaigns as though winning is a foregone conclusion — he is going down.

Then again, he might be going down anyway.

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The “Negative Partisanship” model by Rachel Bitecofer, the assistant director of the Wason Center for Public Policy at Christopher Newport University, is the forecasting model that predicted big Democratic pickups in the House of Representatives in the 2018 midterm election. Bitecofer came closest of all the models, actually… Her model predicted a gain of 42 seats and Democrats picked up 40 — curiously, with two elections still being fussed over.

That same model produced its newest findings on Monday, and it has Trump falling to any Democrat not just in the popular vote, but more importantly in the electoral college vote. The model actually allocates 197 electoral votes to Trump based on states it believes he will win, and 278 to a Generic Democratic nominee, which is more than the 270 required to lock up the election. Who the Democrats choose will certainly affect the final numbers, but the model as it stands doesn’t require a specific name.

That’s GREAT news for America and the world, but not so good for lil’ Donnie.

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Calum Stuart